In the presentation I gave last month on potential euro breakup scenarios, I flagged the introduction of capital controls in a euro-area member as an important step along the road to a potential breakup. Well, they are here in full today in Cyprus. Thoughts here.
Category Archives: Euro Crisis
Cyprus: Europe Rolls the Dice on its Banks
My reaction to the final agreement on Cyprus including a link to an op-ed I wrote for the Irish Times.
Vermont Exit from the Dollar Would Have Little Impact
From the New York Times’s special “Missing the Point” unit comes “For Euro Zone, a Cyprus Exit Would Have Little Impact”. My response (in the form of an Onion-style story).
Whatever It Takes? Cyprus and the Euro on the Brink
My latest thoughts: Is Draghi really going to save the euro after this week’s events.
Revised TARGET2 Paper & Implications for ECB of Cyprus Exit
I’ve updated my TARGET2 paper. Here is a post with a link to the new paper and a discussion relating to a potential exit of Cyprus from the euro.
Cyprus Deposit Levy: No Panic Yet But Scary Long-Term Consequences
Despite the absence of any panic today at European banks or in financial markets, I believe this weekend’s decision on Cyprus may cause serious trouble in the coming weeks and months. Comments here.
Cyprus Depositor Tax: Genius Plan or the End of the Euro?
A quick reaction to the Cyprus deposit levy here.
A Plea for Growth to Europe’s Politicians
Olli’s Follies: Is Debate About Fiscal Multipliers Unhelpful?
Some thoughts on Olli Rehn’s recent letter to European finance ministers on the “unhelpful” IMF research on fiscal multipliers.
Presentation on Euro Exit Scenarios
I’ve been very busy because of personal and professional commitments over the past few weeks and haven’t had any time for blogging. I’m planning to post some stuff soon (starting with comments on the promissory note deal). Here‘s a post that discusses a talk I gave on Friday at a Chicago Booth workshop called “How Costly Would a Euro Exit Be?”