My latest thoughts: Is Draghi really going to save the euro after this week’s events.
I’ve updated my TARGET2 paper. Here is a post with a link to the new paper and a discussion relating to a potential exit of Cyprus from the euro.
Despite the absence of any panic today at European banks or in financial markets, I believe this weekend’s decision on Cyprus may cause serious trouble in the coming weeks and months. Comments here.
A quick reaction to the Cyprus deposit levy here.
Paul Krugman doesn’t like this Washington Post piece on how slow growth could be the new normal for the US. He’s right that it’s a pretty bad piece but there are strong arguments for a slow pace of growth over the next few years for the U.S. economy. Thoughts here.
Some comments on a recent paper by Robert E. Hall and Ricardo Reis (Maintaining Central-Bank Solvency under New-Style Central Banking).
This morning I am giving a talk to a meeting in Dublin of the chairpersons of the 27 EU finance committees. It’s my understanding that the meeting is being is being webcasted live at this site beginning at 8.15 Irish time. The text of my talk is available here.
A post about the disappearance of IBRC’s equity that occurred via the promissory note bond swap.
Some thoughts on Olli Rehn’s recent letter to European finance ministers on the “unhelpful” IMF research on fiscal multipliers.
A bit slower than I had intended but here is a detailed post on Ireland’s new arrangements for dealing with the IBRC debt.
Update: Here is a new post that I wrote containing an alternative set of calculations that assume a faster pace of bond sales by the Central Bank of Ireland.