Some thoughts on the Greek situation and the ongoing negotiations in Brussels.
How Much Would Ireland Benefit from Replacing the Promissory Notes with a Long-Term Bond?
Lots of people I’ve spoken with about the dreaded Anglo promissory notes are mystified at why the Irish government seems willing to replace the notes with a 40-year bond. Isn’t it just replacing one kind of debt with another? Won’t we just end up paying more over the long-run? Here‘s a post where I try to answer these questions. Warning: This is a tricky topic and it’s an unusually wonkish post.
All You Wanted to Know About TARGET2 But Were Afraid to Ask
I’ve written a new paper on TARGET2. This post introduces and links to the paper.
It’s Official: The Eurozone is in Recession
CEPR’s Business Cycle Dating Committee has declared the euro area economy as being in recession since 2011:Q3. Links and discussion here.
Greek Tragedy Turns to Farce
Thoughts on last night’s Eurogroup meeting are here.
Two Posts on Banking Union
There have been a lot of debates in recent weeks about how the Euro area’s banking union should work in practice. I’ve written two posts relating to different aspects of this issue. This one discusses the question of whether monetary policy should be separated from banking supervision while this one discusses whether the ECB should supervise all Euro area banks or just the large ones.
After Mrs. Merkel’s Irish Jig, Are Ireland’s Problems Solved?
I’ve been very busy lately so I haven’t had much time for blogging. Here is a belated assessment of where Ireland stands after a week in which it became clear that Ireland was “a special case” (even if nobody knows quite what that means).
Draghi Making a Big Mistake on Greek Bonds
After supposedly clarifying their position on equal treatment in relation to their bond purchases, Mario Draghi’s comments on the ECB’s holdings of Greek bonds seem to muddy the waters again. My thoughts here.
This Week’s Must-Read on the Euro Crisis
A fantastic new paper by Lee Buchheit and Mitu Gulati, as well as links to other papers by Lee and Mitu, discussed here.
The Celtic Comeback? Don’t Believe the Hype
My thoughts on Enda Kenny’s Time magazine cover are here.