Research

Here‘s my RePEc page. It contains most of my working papers and links to journal websites for published articles.

And here’s some other recent work.

Recent Publications

Risk Aversion and Favorite-Longshot Bias in a Competitive Fixed-Odds Betting Market, Economica, 2024.

The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games (with Tadgh Hegarty),  Journal of Prediction Markets, 2023.

On Prices and Returns in Commercial Prediction Markets, Quantitative Finance, 2023.

Did Raising Doing Business Scores Boost GDP?, (with Tamanna Adhikari), Journal of Comparative Economics, 2023.

A Model of QE, Reserve Demand and the Money Multiplier, (with Ellen Ryan), Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2023.

US Taxation of Gambling Winnings and Incentives to Bet, Journal of Gambling Studies, 2023

Where Do We Stand With “Whatever It Takes”?, Economic and Social Review, Winter 2022

The Past, Present and Future of Euro Area Monetary-Fiscal Interactions, International Economics and Economic Policy, 2022.

Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here?,  European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies, 2021 (link).

Quantitative Easing and the Hot Potato Effect: Evidence from Euro Area Banks (with Ellen Ryan), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021 (link).

The Euro at 20: Successes, Problems, Progress and Threats, Economic and Social Review, December 2019.

Working Papers

Calculating The Bookmaker’s Margin: Why Bets Lose More On Average Than You Are Warned (with Tadgh Hegarty). December 2023.

Returns on Complex Bets: Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer (with Tadgh Hegarty). November 2023.

Oil Prices and Inflation Forecasts (with Constantin Burgi and Prachi Stivastava). November 2023.

Disagreement and Market Structure in Online Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer (with Tadgh Hegarty). November 2023.

How Does Inside Information Affect Sports Betting Odds? July 2023.

Fortune’s Formula or the Road to Ruin? The Generalized Kelly Criterion With Multiple Outcomes, April 2023. Software programmes for this paper

Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets (with Tadgh Hegarty). February 2023.

Other Papers

Europe’s Long-Term Growth Prospects: With and Without Structural Reforms (with Kieran McQuinn). Published in The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe. Edited by Nauro F. Campos, Paul De Grauwe, and Yuemei Ji, Oxford University Press, 2018.

Banking Union and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort, August 2016. Published in Filling the Gaps in Governance: the Case of Europe edited by Franklin Allen, Elena Carletti, Joanna Gray and Mitu Gulati.

Changes in Bank Leverage: Evidence from US Bank Holding Companies (with Martin O’Brien). March 2015

Finally, my TARGET2 paper.  I recommend this working paper version TARGET2 and Central Bank Balance Sheets (March 2013) to the revised (but not better) version published in Economic Policy.