{"id":26,"date":"2012-03-06T23:23:28","date_gmt":"2012-03-06T23:23:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/karlwhelan.com\/staging\/?page_id=26"},"modified":"2026-05-24T11:15:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T11:15:15","slug":"research","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/research\/","title":{"rendered":"Research"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a title=\"Karl Whelan&#039;s RePEc page\" href=\"http:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/e\/pwh23.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Here<\/a>&#8216;s my RePEc page. It contains most of my working papers and links to journal websites for published articles.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/sports-betting-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Here<\/a> is a summary of my recent work on sports betting and prediction markets.<\/p>\n<p>And here are my papers from the last few years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Working Papers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Ruin.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ruin Probabilities for Strategies with Asymmetric Risk<\/a>, July 2025.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Betfair.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Agreeing to Disagree: The Economics of Betting Exchanges<\/a>, September 2025<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Kalshi.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market<\/a> (with Constantin B\u00fcrgi and Wanying Deng). January 2026.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Parlays.pdf\">The Parlay Puzzle: Expected Utility and Multi-Leg Betting<\/a>, March 2026.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/FreeBets.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Economics of Free Bets<\/a>, March 2026.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Portfolio.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A Simple Expected-Utility Foundation for Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice<\/a>, May 2026.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Recent Publications<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/jmcb.13260\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Expectations for Gasoline Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Households<\/a>, (with Constantin B\u00fcrgi and Prachi Srivastava), <em>Journal of Money, Credit and Banking<\/em>, 2026. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Gasoline.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/oep\/article\/78\/1\/90\/8244336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Market Structure and Prices in Online Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence<\/a> (with Tadgh Hegarty), <em>Oxford Economic Papers, 2026. <\/em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/OEP.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/sjpe.70017\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">How Does Inside Information Affect Sports Betting Odds?<\/a>, <em>Scottish Journal of Political Economy<\/em>, 2025. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/SJPE.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0165176525004823\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ambiguity and the Variance of Gambles<\/a>, <em>Economics Letters<\/em>, 2025. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Ambiguity.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/00036846.2025.2507979\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Estimating Expected Loss Rates in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence<\/a> (with Tadgh Hegarty), <em>Applied Economics<\/em>, 2025. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Overround.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207024000670?via%3Dihub\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets<\/a> (with Tadgh Hegarty), <em>International Journal of Forecasting,<\/em> 2025<em>.<\/em> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/IJF.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/manc.12505\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">On Estimates of Insider Trading in Sports Betting<\/a>, <em>The Manchester School<\/em>, 2025<em>. <\/em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/ShinzNov24.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/boer.12474\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">On Optimal Betting Strategies With Multiple Mutually Exclusive Outcomes<\/a>, <em>Bulletin of Economic Research<\/em>, 2025. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/BER.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>) Software programmes for this paper<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Smoczynski and Tomkins <a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/TomkinsReplicate1.m\">replication 1<\/a>. (Matlab)<\/li>\n<li>Smoczynski and Tomkins <a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/TomkinsReplicate2.m\">replication 2<\/a>. (Matlab)<\/li>\n<li>Python <a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/GeneralizedKelly.ipynb\">Jupyter notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2773161824000193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Comparing Two Methods for Testing the Efficiency of Sports Betting Markets<\/a> (with Tadgh Hegarty), <em>Sports Economics Review<\/em>, 2024. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/SER.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.emerald.com\/insight\/content\/doi\/10.1108\/RBF-11-2023-0314\/full\/html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Returns on Complex Bets: Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer<\/a> (with Tadgh Hegarty), <em>Review of Behavioral Finance<\/em>, 2024<em>. <\/em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/RBF.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/ecca.12500\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Risk Aversion and Favorite-Longshot Bias in a Competitive Fixed-Odds Betting Market<\/a>, <em>Economica<\/em>, 2024. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Economica.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/JPM.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games<\/a> (with Tadgh Hegarty),\u00a0 <em>Journal of Prediction Markets<\/em>, 2023.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/14697688.2023.2257756\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">On Prices and Returns in Commercial Prediction Markets<\/a>, <em>Quantitative Finance<\/em>, 2023<em>. <\/em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/QF.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S014759672300032X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Did Raising Doing Business Scores Boost GDP?<\/a>, (with Tamanna Adhikari), <em>Journal of Comparative Economics<\/em>, 2023. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/JCE.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"A Model of QE, Reserve Demand the Money Multiplier\" href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/jmcb.12975\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">A Model of QE, Reserve Demand and the Money Multiplier<\/a>, (with Ellen Ryan), <em>Journal of Money Credit and Banking<\/em>, 2023<em>. <\/em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/JMCB2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10899-023-10189-z\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">US Taxation of Gambling Winnings and Incentives to Bet<\/a>, <em>Journal of Gambling Studies<\/em>, 2023. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/JGS.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Final PDF<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.esr.ie\/article\/view\/2280\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Where Do We Stand With \u201cWhatever It Takes\u201d?<\/a>, <em>Economic and Social Review<\/em>, Winter 2022<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"The Past, Present and Future of Euro Area Monetary-Fiscal Interactions\" href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10368-022-00531-y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Past, Present and Future of Euro Area Monetary-Fiscal Interactions<\/a>, <em>International Economics and Economic Policy<\/em>, 2022.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/CBsAndInflation2021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here?<\/a>,\u00a0\u00a0<em>European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies, <\/em>2021<i>\u00a0<\/i>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.elgaronline.com\/view\/journals\/ejeep\/18-3\/ejeep.2021.03.06.xml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">link<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.centralbank.ie\/docs\/default-source\/publications\/research-technical-papers\/01rt19-quantitative-easing-and-the-hot-potato-effect-evidence-from-euro-area-banks-(ryan-and-whelan).pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Quantitative Easing and the Hot Potato Effect: Evidence from Euro Area Banks<\/a> (with Ellen Ryan),\u00a0<em>Journal of International Money and Finance<\/em>, 2021<em>\u00a0<\/em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0261560621000036\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">link<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Papers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/EA-Sept2017.pdf\">Europe\u2019s Long-Term Growth Prospects: With and Without Structural Reforms<\/a> (with Kieran McQuinn). Published in\u00a0<em>The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe<\/em>. Edited by Nauro F. Campos, Paul De Grauwe, and Yuemei Ji, Oxford University Press, 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/Whelan-LOLR-2016.pdf\">Banking Union and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort<\/a>, August 2016. Published in\u00a0Filling the <a href=\"http:\/\/cadmus.eui.eu\/bitstream\/handle\/1814\/41825\/Filling_the_gaps_2016.pdf?sequence=3&amp;isAllowed=y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gaps in Governance: the Case of Europe<\/a> edited by Franklin Allen, Elena Carletti, Joanna Gray and Mitu Gulati.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, my TARGET2 paper.\u00a0 I recommend this working paper version <a href=\"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/Papers\/T2Paper-March2013.pdf\">TARGET2 and Central Bank Balance Sheets<\/a> (March 2013) to the revised (but not better) version published in <em>Economic Policy<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8216;s my RePEc page. It contains most of my working papers and links to journal websites for published articles. Here [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-26","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/26","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26"}],"version-history":[{"count":163,"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/26\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2490,"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/26\/revisions\/2490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.karlwhelan.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}