Research

Here‘s my RePEc page. It contains most of my working papers and links to journal websites for published articles.

And here’s some other recent work.

Working Papers

Ruin Probabilities for Strategies with Asymmetric Risk, July 2025.

Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market (with Constantin Bürgi and Wanying Deng). September 2025.

Agreeing to Disagree: The Economics of Betting Exchanges, September 2025

Recent Publications

Expectations for Gasoline Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Households, (with Constantin Burgi and Prachi Srivastava), forthcoming Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Market Structure and Prices in Online Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence (with Tadgh Hegarty), Oxford Economic Papers, 2026. (Final PDF)

How Does Inside Information Affect Sports Betting Odds?, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2025. (Final PDF)

Ambiguity and the Variance of Gambles, Economics Letters, 2025. (Final PDF)

Estimating Expected Loss Rates in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence (with Tadgh Hegarty), Applied Economics, 2025. (Final PDF)

Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets (with Tadgh Hegarty), International Journal of Forecasting, 2025. (Final PDF).

On Estimates of Insider Trading in Sports Betting, The Manchester School, 2025. (Final PDF)

On Optimal Betting Strategies With Multiple Mutually Exclusive Outcomes, Bulletin of Economic Research, 2025. (Final PDF) Software programmes for this paper

Comparing Two Methods for Testing the Efficiency of Sports Betting Markets (with Tadgh Hegarty), Sports Economics Review, 2024. (Final PDF)

Returns on Complex Bets: Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer (with Tadgh Hegarty), Review of Behavioral Finance, 2024. (Final PDF)

Risk Aversion and Favorite-Longshot Bias in a Competitive Fixed-Odds Betting Market, Economica, 2024. (Final PDF)

The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games (with Tadgh Hegarty),  Journal of Prediction Markets, 2023.

On Prices and Returns in Commercial Prediction Markets, Quantitative Finance, 2023. (Final PDF)

Did Raising Doing Business Scores Boost GDP?, (with Tamanna Adhikari), Journal of Comparative Economics, 2023. (Final PDF)

A Model of QE, Reserve Demand and the Money Multiplier, (with Ellen Ryan), Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2023. (Final PDF)

US Taxation of Gambling Winnings and Incentives to Bet, Journal of Gambling Studies, 2023. (Final PDF)

Where Do We Stand With “Whatever It Takes”?, Economic and Social Review, Winter 2022

The Past, Present and Future of Euro Area Monetary-Fiscal Interactions, International Economics and Economic Policy, 2022.

Central Banks and Inflation: Where Do We Stand and How Did We Get Here?,  European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies, 2021 (link).

Quantitative Easing and the Hot Potato Effect: Evidence from Euro Area Banks (with Ellen Ryan), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021 (link).

Other Papers

Europe’s Long-Term Growth Prospects: With and Without Structural Reforms (with Kieran McQuinn). Published in The Political Economy of Structural Reforms in Europe. Edited by Nauro F. Campos, Paul De Grauwe, and Yuemei Ji, Oxford University Press, 2018.

Banking Union and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort, August 2016. Published in Filling the Gaps in Governance: the Case of Europe edited by Franklin Allen, Elena Carletti, Joanna Gray and Mitu Gulati.

Finally, my TARGET2 paper.  I recommend this working paper version TARGET2 and Central Bank Balance Sheets (March 2013) to the revised (but not better) version published in Economic Policy.

Scroll to Top